The gap in crime rates between undocumented immigrants, legal immigrants, and U.S. natives is huge

Tod Perry
Sat, 26 Apr 2025 18:40:34 +0000
Immigration reform, Deportation, Ice, Undocumented immigrant crime, Legal immigrant crime, America crime rate, Who commits crime, Donald trump, Joe biden, Arrests, Deportation laws, Border security, Immigration

Immigration was one of the biggest issues in the 2024 presidential election, and it helped propel Donald Trump to his second presidential term. Last year saw a significant shift in public opinion on immigration, with 55% of Americans believing that immigration levels should be decreased, the highest number in nearly 20 years.

One of the biggest reasons that people fear immigrants, both legal and undocumented, is that they believe they commit a disproportionate number of crimes and pose a danger to natural-born citizens. Polls show that 47% of Americans believe that immigrants increase crime in the United States.

It’s no surprise that many feel this way, given the increasingly polarized political rhetoric surrounding immigrants. Over the past decade, prominent politicians have referred to immigrants as “invaders,” “animals,” and “rapists,” who shouldn't come to America. Some have even suggested that they are being allowed in the country to “replace” white Americans.

A man being arrested by ICE. via ICE Enforcement and Removal Operations/Flickr

In addition to the abrasive rhetoric, a lot of Americans have also developed negative attitudes towards immigration because they fear foreign-born people will change the culture and could pose a threat to their employment. A majority of Americans have also been alarmed by years of chaos at the southern border.

Immigration is a complex issue that evokes strong emotions, so we must distinguish fact from rhetoric to craft humane policies that support a system where immigrants and native-born Americans thrive together. That’s why a recent report from the Cato Institute, a libertarian-leaning public policy research organization, is so important. The report shows that the fear-mongering over immigrant crime is unfounded and that native-born Americans pose a much greater threat to their safety.

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Do immigrants commit more crime?

The study, conducted by Michelangelo Landgrave and Alex Nowrasteh, utilized American Community Survey (ACS) Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) from the US Census data from 2010 to 2023 to determine the crime rate per capita among undocumented immigrants, legal immigrants, and natural-born Americans. They found that undocumented people are incarcerated at about half the rate, per capita, than native-born Americans and that legal immigrants commit crimes at about half the rate of undocumented immigrants.

Here’s the Cato Institute's findings:

An estimated 1,617,197 native-born Americans, 67,813 illegal immigrants, and 58,515 legal immigrants were incarcerated in 2023. The incarceration rate for native-born Americans was 1,221 per 100,000; 613 per 100,000 for illegal immigrants; and 319 per 100,000 for legal immigrants in 2022 (Figure 1). Illegal immigrants are half as likely to be incarcerated as native-born Americans. Legal immigrants are 74 percent less likely to be incarcerated than natives. If native-born Americans were incarcerated at the same rate as illegal immigrants, about 806,000 fewer natives would be incarcerated. Conversely, if natives were incarcerated at the same rate as legal immigrants, about 1.2 million fewer native-born Americans would be incarcerated.

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Further, the report shows that if you removed the people in ICE detention facilities on any given day, the undocumented crime rate would fall to 357 per 100,000 people, only 12% higher than that of legal immigrants.

Nowrasteh speculates that there are multiple reasons why undocumented immigrants are less likely to commit crimes than natural-born citizens. He suggests that they are more future-oriented because they faced huge risks in coming to the U.S. They also fear the consequences of committing crimes, including deportation, and often have stronger social bonds that discourage them from breaking the law.

The interesting change over the first 100 days of the new administration is that even though people were very concerned about the state of immigration, they are now turning against its aggressive and legally questionable deportation strategies. This points to a unique balance among Americans that shows they are concerned about immigration but also care for immigrants who are unfairly targeted by the system. Hopefully, Americans’ concern for immigrants’ welfare will be matched by a clearer understanding of the actual safety risks they pose, paving the way for policies that benefit everyone.